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Thursday, May 29, 2008

Ne Bubble: It's a Secular Bull Market in Commodities.


Regardless of all the recent rhetoric about a commodities bubble and the un-sustainability of oil prices, food and other utilitarian commodities will continue to see price appreciation. 
  • Metals.  Utilitarian metals aluminum, platinum, and silver used in products and industrial processes should see continued growth. Growth for these metals should be steady due to structural shifts in the greening of the developed world and the increased dependence on electronics and technology for industry, business, and personal living. go to article
  • Oil.  Soros is a keen student of bubbles [and has profited from them handsomely]. His ideas contradicts prevailing wisdom.  He states that he is not an expert in oil, but has his opinion.  With that, for bubbles in general, in regards to the oil market. Soros doesn't believe an oil market crash is imminent. Only when a recession is well and truly in place is a decline in consumption in the developed world likely to outweigh his factors. He'd like to discourage institutional investors pursuing a commodity index buying strategy is intellectually unsound and distinctly harmful in its economic consequences.  Though there is danger is this strategy, regulation of markets may have unintended, adverse consequences. go to article
  • Agricultural commodities prices may  become more volatile, but since food stock levels are expected to remain low, and whole populations in emerging markets are shifting from agricultural to industrial to post industrial in one generation, demand for commodities becomes less responsive to price changes going up. go to emerging markets article
Secular Bull Market. World population is booming and emerging markets are shifting demand.  That effects the broad spectrum of commodities.  Unlike oil, there is demand inelasticity with many necessary commodities.

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